Weather 'tis better ....
This was originally intended to start with a pun (mis)quoting Hamlet. However it turns out that, having got rid of the business about "To be or not to be .." the Prince of Denmark asks "Whether tis nobler ...".
The Prince who goes on about "whether it is better" was the subject of work by Nicolai Machiavelli: possibly a far better model for describing matters meteorological. One reference on this work talks about "whether it is better to be loved or feared" which seem like a couple of reasonable alternative ways of reacting to the weather.
After a prolonged period of dry weather, especially 2008 and 2009, we were fearing a further dry year when we scored little rain in January 2010 However since then it has basically bucketed down, which we have loved. A dry spell has recently ensued leading to fears of a dry hot and long Summer. That idea diminished when it started to rain about 4am on 13 October. By late afternoon we had had 36mm which seemed sufficient, especially as heavy rainfall was forecast for Friday. Some more fell before midnight and then the heavens opened from 2am to 3am on the 14th. The Creek was over the road around then.
So now it is Friday the 15th of October and here is the weather forecast:
The rain actually started at about 5:30, pretty much on schedule, and here are a couple of images from the BoM radar around 5:50am. It is possible to generate a bit of fear about the wider image!
Looping the 512km image suggests that the worst of this system may go to the South of us which would be lovely (or even, to quote from My Fair Lady, Loverly).
By 0915 we had received 11mm of rain and every watercourse on the place is running rapidly. A watercourse is now every linear depression on the place! My potato trenches are now rated as billabongs so we are glad we still have a few seed potatoes left.
It appears that we are just missing the worst of it, probably due to the hills this side of the Murrumbidgee valley channelling the heaver rain past us, heading SE. Another graphic may explain what I am on about here.
That was possibly counting the chickens before the eggs were laid, let alone hatched. By 1115 we had received another 8mm and the radar looked like this:
You should be able to see that the reflectivity (ie severity of the rain) around here has increased and the wind (or at least the movement of the system) has shifted a bit more to the West meaning that it poureth down. I fear that the Creek will be over the road any time from now. However as Frances went out for some gardening in the rain I went and dug some drains around the spuds.
By 2pm we had moved to confirming the strong wind element of the forecast, while there is still a bit of precipitation going on. Here are images of the Creek flowing over our drive and the water running down beside it.
A few weeks after we got back from the UK in July I commented that I was 'over' Winter. Let it now be known that I am now also 'over' Spring. We are now up to 29mm today (so far) giving 94mm in the last three days, Here is Canyon Creek in the top end of our plot.
The Prince who goes on about "whether it is better" was the subject of work by Nicolai Machiavelli: possibly a far better model for describing matters meteorological. One reference on this work talks about "whether it is better to be loved or feared" which seem like a couple of reasonable alternative ways of reacting to the weather.
After a prolonged period of dry weather, especially 2008 and 2009, we were fearing a further dry year when we scored little rain in January 2010 However since then it has basically bucketed down, which we have loved. A dry spell has recently ensued leading to fears of a dry hot and long Summer. That idea diminished when it started to rain about 4am on 13 October. By late afternoon we had had 36mm which seemed sufficient, especially as heavy rainfall was forecast for Friday. Some more fell before midnight and then the heavens opened from 2am to 3am on the 14th. The Creek was over the road around then.
So now it is Friday the 15th of October and here is the weather forecast:
- Cloudy. Heavy rain, easing to showers by early evening. The chance of thunderstorms from this morning until late afternoon. Winds northerly averaging up to 55 km/h, increasing to 60 km/h ahead of a west to northwesterly change 35 to 50 km/h during the afternoon.
The rain actually started at about 5:30, pretty much on schedule, and here are a couple of images from the BoM radar around 5:50am. It is possible to generate a bit of fear about the wider image!
By 0915 we had received 11mm of rain and every watercourse on the place is running rapidly. A watercourse is now every linear depression on the place! My potato trenches are now rated as billabongs so we are glad we still have a few seed potatoes left.
It appears that we are just missing the worst of it, probably due to the hills this side of the Murrumbidgee valley channelling the heaver rain past us, heading SE. Another graphic may explain what I am on about here.
By 2pm we had moved to confirming the strong wind element of the forecast, while there is still a bit of precipitation going on. Here are images of the Creek flowing over our drive and the water running down beside it.
Comments
You guys are getting much more rain than we are.
That is against the natural order of things!
I have noticed in the past that the yellow decomposed granite soils from Queanbeyan area and obviously through to your place generate "floods" much more readily than happens here.
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I presume this is because the soil is harder or has more clay in it, and so is much less absorbent, than my soil here.
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I once had to measure the absorbency of my soil (for a septic tank) and was told to dig a hole and fill it to a certain level and observe how long it took to drain away.
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Using a bucket (I didn't have garden hoses then) It took me many trips to get the required depth of water, for it kept draining away so fast.
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I once saw water flowing across one paddock, similar to your second last image, but that was in the middle of a storm which gave us 300mm over 2 days.
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Anything less than that just soaks in around here.
Mind you, we have only had 35 mm over the last 3 days here.
So back to my start - you are copping much more than we are.
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Hume Hwy is blocked in southern NSW.
Cheers
Denis