Tuesday, 14 November 2017

Where do Carwoola people come from?

The ABS released the final bunch of 2016 Census data to Table Builder last Friday.  This included the data items that require more effort to code including Industry; Occupation; Educational Qualifications and Usual Residence 1 and 5 years ago.

I thought I would start off my analysis of these data for Carwoola (by which I mean the catchment area of the Stoney Creek Gazette not just the State Suburb) with the topics dealing with Internal Migration.  At the simplest level these data address the question of whether a person was residing at the same address in 2016 as they were in 2015 or 2011.

It is important to note that this is all based on place of usual residence.  Thus as myself and Frances completed our Census form at Rockhampton where we were on Census night, but gave our usual address as Carwoola we are not shown as movers.

I have tried to compare 4 series in one graph - possibly a bad idea.  The categories are the 5 options which ABS provides.  For each category the top two bars relate to 2016 vs 2011 and the lower two bars to 2016 vs 2015.  The middle two bars are the Carwoola values and the outer two for Australia.  The "not applicable" category is people who weren't born at the previous time (<1 2011="" 2015="" for="" old="" p="" year="" years="">
I'll outline my findings after the chart.

  • As would be expected more people have moved over the 5 year span than the one year.
  • For both spans Carwoola has a higher proportion of people at the same address than Australia.
  • Carwoola also has a higher "Not stated" category than Australia.  Since a proportion - possibly quite high - of non-responses will be because people didn't think the question relevant due to them not moving this would accentuate the previous point.
  • The proportion of international movers is very low for Carwoola.
The next approach is to look, at a broad level, where people were located 1 and 5 years ago.
Given the previous finding it is no surprise that the vast majority of Carwoola Residents were located in NSW in both the preceding periods.  That proportion dominates the chart to make most other entries unreadable so the next chart excludes NSW and two administrative categories.
This chart emphasises the movement from the ACT (at the risk of letting a hobby horse out of the stable, it shows the rubbish of the boundary between NSW and the ACT).  It is a little surprising that no-one has moved from SA to the Carwoola area in 5 years.

This set of data is in the final release since coding the past addresses to LGA takes considerable resources.  Looking at this finer level of detail shows that:
  • Those who moved from elsewhere in Australia to Carwoola in the year prior to the census came from 7 local Government areas.  (This slightly conflicts with the State level information due to the confidentiality process concealing the LGA for the nmovers from WA.)  Since, for all the donor LGAs other than the ACT, the number of people moving is 3 -5 I expect that these represent the movement of a single household.
  • Movers over a 5 year period were located in 24 LGAs other than ACT (which 'donated' 178 people over the 5 years).  
    • Interestingly this excludes 5 of the 7 LGAs identified as donors in the one year movement.  This would seem to be explained by a mixture of the impact of the confidentiality rules and people from Carwoola being here in 2011, residing elsewhere in 2015 and returning in 2016. 
    • The LGAs providing more than a (probable) single household over the 5 year period were Snowy Monaro Regional (13 people); Upper Lachlan (11); and Goulburn Mulwaree (10).

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