Thursday, 3 August 2017

Weather on 3rd August

The forecast for this date has featured quite a lot of rain.  So it was a bit surprising finding that at 11am both interpretations of the local weather radar were devoid of bright colours.  Stretching out West a fair bit showed some dampness around Echuca on both Weatherzone ....
... and BoM.
However in both cases the animated image suggested it was spinning its wheels out West.  Then, when I went for a waddle shortly after 11am, I found a brisk Easterly to be blowing.  Hmm: does not seem auspicious for rain.  I was beginning to recall a comment by a former Senior Forecaster at BoM that he averaged "about one really major error per year" and thinking that some-one had just achieved their norm.

By 1330 matters had improved (if you take probable rain as a good thing).

It hasn't got here yet, but at least it now looks to be positioned so that we get a drop.  It has taken until 1730 for precipitation to fight its way here against the Easterly.  This is a 64km image rather than the 512(ish) kms above.
By 1845 we're up to 5mm of rain and the radar ....

... suggests there is plenty more to come!  We are at the red 'X' and the system seems to be moving as shown by the arrow.  By 20:00 we are up to 10mm (lower bound of forecast fall) and its still honking down.  Not the big failure foreshadowed above, just a bit out in the timing.

Whiskers Creek has, astonishingly, continued to flow through this 10 week mini-drought.  On the morning of 4 August it was running through both pipes for the first time in a long while.
We have ended up with 18.2mm from this main event.  Rather than spending electricity pumping this up to our main tank (which is going to be drained shortly for replacement as a result of fire damage) I have turned the pump off and letting the catch tank overflow onto the lawn.

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