Friday, 11 August 2017

TAMLaPS Rools!

I have just read a very interesting article by Peter Martin about the ABS new responsibilities.  I went to check the ABS website to see what they have to say about it there: in terms of a media release etc there is, as Peter Martin suggests, nothing.  Nada.  Zilch. Hakuna habari (I just thought I'd chuck in a bit of Kiswahili for fun: it means "We have no news." and is totally different to the Lion King's motto of  Hakuna matata).

However they do have some acknowledgement of the role in the form of this notice on the home page:
That is too big a mouthful to swallow so I have come up with the acronym shown in the title of this post.  I've included the lower case 'a' to make it pronounceable even though it is now one character more than LBGTIQ, which is another unduly long but possibly relevant acronym in this context.

Now that we have come down to admitting the damn thing is a Survey why can't the Government recognise that there are already lots of Surveys on this topic showing clearly that the Public support changing the law?  OK, answered in two words: Mad Monk!

What is interesting is that the Government would probably claim that the sample size of the existing polls is too small.  That should be able to be analysed by the sampling error of the surveys.  The big problem with TAMLaPS is that while sampling error should be low (because it is (pause for laughter) a full enumeration) there will be massive - and IMHO unmeasurable - non sampling error!  Oh dear, oh dear I foresee months of fun as the various pressure groups try to argue about what the results of TAMLaPS actually mean!  I hope the High Court leaves a few gaps in their schedule around Christmas.

The ABS has now published a media release It doesn't bode well that they say "All Australians on the roll (or those who've made a valid request for enrolment) by 24 August 2017 will receive the necessary documentation to enable them to participate." while Minister Corman is quoted as saying "The survey instruments will be sent to those who are on the roll;"..." thus excluding those who have only made a valid request.

There is now a statement on the ABS site which offers a good bit more information.  For some reason  (eg they are waiting to get their snouts in the trough of a paid advertising campaign) it hasn't been covered by mainstream media.

No comments: