Now that the dust has settled ...

.. from yesterdays momentous events in politics I will pass a few thoughts on the way forward.

First up, for me the disappointment of the day was seeing Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor bow out.  They were both brilliant for the past three years.

Moving on to the ALP  it seems quite clear that the Kevster is more popular with the electorate than was Julia Gillard.  While there is probably an element of misogynism underlying this, our local MP - Mike Kelly (ALP) - in a interview with ABC, commented that

"The community was very strongly saying to me in no uncertain terms that they felt it was wrong to have deposed Kevin Rudd in 2010.“People knew exactly where I stood in relation to that and certainly they have demanded that he be returned."

I expect to be doing a bit to help Mike get re-elected, including being seen running around the streets of Queanbeyan wearing a "Mike Kelly gets the job done" T-shirt.

The shirt got its first airing this morning and a few people peered at it.  One lady was heard to say "What a great shirt."  

A 'reader poll in the Fairfax press this morning rated it as 60:40 that Labour could (note, not will) win the election.  On the other hand a comment on ABC TV last evening referred back to a comment by the lovely and adorable John Howard in saying Rudd was like "Lazarus with a triple bypass and a few limbs missing".

So what of the other political parties?  

Let me start by shooting a large fish in a very small barrel. The United Australia Party sponsored by Clive Palmer has got to be a joke.  Apart from their views, which can only appeal to a special group of punters, having a leader who makes Chris Christie's weight issues seem miniscule should prohibit them serious consideration.  Sportsbet are offering a miserable $1.18 on the proposition that they will win no seats (roughly 55/10 ON).

Moving slightly closer to sanity - or at least a lower BMI - we have another redhead in Pauline Hanson.  Sportsbet are offering $5 as their measure of her getting a Senate seat.  I suspect this is unfortunately the best value they are offering as she came very close to jagging a NSW Upper House seat  for herself a couple of years ago.  However, one can pray that commonsense will prevail!

Next up we have the Coalition of the Liberal Party of Australia and the National Party.  Sportsbet are still being miserable offering $1.18 (again) on them forming a Government by 30 September.  The big worry  (for them = hope for Australia) is that one of their senior members (eg Abbot, Hockey, Morrison, Pyne, or either of the Mesdames.Bishop) really offends the public by introducing a really offensive policy.  The big worry for the ALP would be if the rest of parties note the risks of that happening and brings back big Mal.  (Turnbull that is, rather than Fraser. Really Big Mal (Meninga) is a patriotic Queenslander so probably supports Kev.)

Last we have the Greens.  In the ACT they had 4 members in the Assembly until the last election when this dropped to 1.  My suspicion is that much the same might happen Nationally at the upcoming election.  I an see several reasons for this:

• They have lost their founding leader, Bob Brown who would have attracted a huge vote across the country;
• Some of their elected Senators - and I will single out Sarah Hanson-Young - are the most annoying pedants ever encountered; and
• Hopefully people will remember them not supporting the initial carbon reduction scheme (which was the initial step towards Rudd's downfall) because it wasn't pure enough.  A statement this morning by their current leader suggests that they are likely to try similar garbage again.
• They have generally adopted a "no surrender" approach, demanding their entire package or nothing (and very frequently got nothing).