Election update week n-0
As well as handing out How-to-Vote cards etc I was asked to do a bit of letter boxing in a suburb of Queanbeyan. This was quite interesting as I got to look round an area of that city which I hadn't previously seen much of. I didn't have any interface with the local community apart from a young female person who handed back the card saying "we're voting for the Gay Rights Party". Possibly she was trying to shock me, but she failed as I reckon she looked about 4 years too young to vote - and I was trying to recall if there is a gay rights group in the election (either Senate or the Reps).
I continued to wear my "Keep Kelly Working" tee shirt after this to see if it provoked any discussions during my other jobs in the Post Office and Woolworths. The only one was a rather roughly attired guy (the Rooster Cogburn comment - "reminds me of me" is applicable) in front of me at Woolies said to the effect that "Its going to be close". The rest of our conversation suggested he would also wear a shirt like mine! Hopefully my role as mobile billboard did a smidgeon for the cause.
I have, from time to time in these pages referred to the market run by Centrebet (if you want to gamble do so responsibly, as the twerps say in the NRL games - why don't they run a banner under these blurbs showing how much profit the bookies made last year?). I have not kept a close watch on the market but have received advice that the Coalition got down to about $2.45at one point. They have now moved out again, suggesting that some money is flowing on to the ALP. Here is a log of movements over the rest of the campaign, when this market should be a good indicator of sentiment. I have included the two possible winners for Eden-Monaro out of personal interest (as Catherine Moore is out to $141.00 I have decided that Centrebet, like the electorate, have decided she is not going to happen) !
I finished off my letterboxing on 17 August. I reckon I took about 90 minutes to deliver cards to 270 dwellings. As quite a few of them were blocks of units there wasn't a great deal of travel involved in this: as I did the second spell on (or pushing) my bike I was able to measure that as 4km, but since that took a bit less time than the first spell I'd estimate the total distance as 10km. I'd contrast this with the 150km I did (mainly on bike) distributing material to 500 houses in the Carwoola area for the 2007 election!
It was also interesting to assess the number of houses in Karabar with various forms of no junk mail stickers on their letter boxes: I reckon less than 10% of places had these adornments, which contrasts with up to 60% in some areas I investigated many years ago. That investigation showed no correlation of proportion of mail boxes with stickers with income, average age or occupational prestige but did correlate well and positively with educational attainment (The greater the proportion of people with a degree of some sort the higher the proportion of dwellings with a no junk mail sticker.) I will try to find the original research.
My final stint at the prepoll booth happened today. One of the other ALP helpers was a rather excitable little Russian lady: I could certainly imagine her storming the odd barricade. Apparently she lives at Rossi (in our neck of the woods) and has a sign out the front of her place announcing that it has got an "Abbott-proof fence"! The episode was notable for having both Catherine Moore of the Greens and David Gazard of the Liberals front up. The latter gent did some handing out of his material - nice to see him getting his paws grubby. He also showed a bit of class by going out of his way to introduce himself to the rest of us and have a chat about this and that - in my case about the relative merits of native and introduced grassland. (He was clear that the native species were more nutritious!)
I continued to wear my "Keep Kelly Working" tee shirt after this to see if it provoked any discussions during my other jobs in the Post Office and Woolworths. The only one was a rather roughly attired guy (the Rooster Cogburn comment - "reminds me of me" is applicable) in front of me at Woolies said to the effect that "Its going to be close". The rest of our conversation suggested he would also wear a shirt like mine! Hopefully my role as mobile billboard did a smidgeon for the cause.
I have, from time to time in these pages referred to the market run by Centrebet (if you want to gamble do so responsibly, as the twerps say in the NRL games - why don't they run a banner under these blurbs showing how much profit the bookies made last year?). I have not kept a close watch on the market but have received advice that the Coalition got down to about $2.45at one point. They have now moved out again, suggesting that some money is flowing on to the ALP. Here is a log of movements over the rest of the campaign, when this market should be a good indicator of sentiment. I have included the two possible winners for Eden-Monaro out of personal interest (as Catherine Moore is out to $141.00 I have decided that Centrebet, like the electorate, have decided she is not going to happen) !
| Date | ALP | Coalition | Kelly | Gazard |
| 15 August | 1.26 | 3.80 | 1.28 | 3.40 |
| 16 August | 1.28 | 3.60 | 1.28 | 3.40 |
| 17 August | 1.28 | 3.62 | 1.28 | 3.40 |
| 18 August | 1.28 | 3.62 | 1.28 | 3.40 |
| 19 August | 1.27 | 3.72 | 1.20 | 4.10 |
| 20 August | ||||
| 21 August |
I finished off my letterboxing on 17 August. I reckon I took about 90 minutes to deliver cards to 270 dwellings. As quite a few of them were blocks of units there wasn't a great deal of travel involved in this: as I did the second spell on (or pushing) my bike I was able to measure that as 4km, but since that took a bit less time than the first spell I'd estimate the total distance as 10km. I'd contrast this with the 150km I did (mainly on bike) distributing material to 500 houses in the Carwoola area for the 2007 election!
It was also interesting to assess the number of houses in Karabar with various forms of no junk mail stickers on their letter boxes: I reckon less than 10% of places had these adornments, which contrasts with up to 60% in some areas I investigated many years ago. That investigation showed no correlation of proportion of mail boxes with stickers with income, average age or occupational prestige but did correlate well and positively with educational attainment (The greater the proportion of people with a degree of some sort the higher the proportion of dwellings with a no junk mail sticker.) I will try to find the original research.
My final stint at the prepoll booth happened today. One of the other ALP helpers was a rather excitable little Russian lady: I could certainly imagine her storming the odd barricade. Apparently she lives at Rossi (in our neck of the woods) and has a sign out the front of her place announcing that it has got an "Abbott-proof fence"! The episode was notable for having both Catherine Moore of the Greens and David Gazard of the Liberals front up. The latter gent did some handing out of his material - nice to see him getting his paws grubby. He also showed a bit of class by going out of his way to introduce himself to the rest of us and have a chat about this and that - in my case about the relative merits of native and introduced grassland. (He was clear that the native species were more nutritious!)
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