Early August weather stuff
The BoM 64km Radar looks promising at 0930 of the 18th.
Unbelievable!
Referring to the red letters:
A shows that they can publish to 1 place of decimals.
B should be interpreted as saying that the is a 30% chance of getting 0.2mm of rain.
C Noting that A shows that they can cite to one decimal place why is this not 0.2 rather than 0? Taken in conjunction with B we have a range of 30% at least 0.2mm and 25% chance of >0.2mm. This parameter is the 50% probability so why isn't it 0.2 rather an zero. It would look 'strange" to have a range from 0.2mm - 0.2mm but I think my understanding is correct.;
D As the "chance of any rain" means the chance of at least 0.2mm, since the probability of any rain is 50%, and thy seem able to cite to one decimal place when they want to A, why isn't this 0.2mm?
My suspicion is that all these numbers are calculated independently with no thought as to what they actually mean in general. Possibly it is too complicated to cover all options but if they actually said the quartiles (as they do in Meteye) it would be a lot clearer.
This WZ radar clip was taken mid afternoon on the 19th. We got a very few, very small, flakes of snow out of it but then it dissipated before being registered.
There are a few technical issues with this forecast from BoM. I'll put them under the image: my understanding is informed by a story on the ABC website.
A shows that they can publish to 1 place of decimals.
B should be interpreted as saying that the is a 30% chance of getting 0.2mm of rain.
C Noting that A shows that they can cite to one decimal place why is this not 0.2 rather than 0? Taken in conjunction with B we have a range of 30% at least 0.2mm and 25% chance of >0.2mm. This parameter is the 50% probability so why isn't it 0.2 rather an zero. It would look 'strange" to have a range from 0.2mm - 0.2mm but I think my understanding is correct.;
D As the "chance of any rain" means the chance of at least 0.2mm, since the probability of any rain is 50%, and thy seem able to cite to one decimal place when they want to A, why isn't this 0.2mm?
My suspicion is that all these numbers are calculated independently with no thought as to what they actually mean in general. Possibly it is too complicated to cover all options but if they actually said the quartiles (as they do in Meteye) it would be a lot clearer.
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