An assessment of the weather

I have posted a few times about recent weather.  "Hot windy and dry" is a concise summary.  The official forecast for the rest of this week appears to suggest that the 'dry' component is about to change.
However I get a feeling that the broad weather pattern is in a transition phase and thus forecasting is a bit tough, so the promised showers may not occur.  The clouds did look promising for a while in the evening of the 21st ...
... but generated nothing wet.

There are another couple of forecasting services around.  I suspect this one from Elders ...
...  is a different analysis of the same data as used by BoM.  However the Weather Channel probably uses different data.
At least I hope they do to come up with such a different forecast!

The following table summarises the synoptic words for the three forecasts as at 1700 on 21 January, with those I regard as equal marked in yellow.  I'll update the table as time goes by, highlighting the forecast I rate as closest by setting the text to bold red.

Day BoM  Elders TWC Actual
Monday Shower or two developing Late shower Clear Humid no rain
Tuesday Chance of a storm Possible thunderstorm Sunny Not even that humid!
Wednesday Shower or two  Possible thunderstorm Mostly Sunny No sign of rain
Thursday Early shower or two. Mostly sunny AM Clouds PM Sun ibid
Friday Shower or two  Possible thunderstorm Partly cloudy A bit cloudy at times

In effect anything - other than snow - is possible!

By 4:30 on 22 January the picture has changed as far as BoM are concerned.
I think we are back waiting for a storm named Godot!  It is possibly indicative that on the evening of 23 January the ABC TV News presenter commented about the difference a day makes in weather forecasting.

The numbers are in.  TWC was pretty much on the money while BoM were miles off.

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