NSW Elections The Aftermath II: Good news!!
I warned you in my last post this was going to be a series!
The election stuff started early this morning as I read the headlines in the SMH. It is interesting how this article has changed: in the version I read about 7am someone - whether from Treasury or the ALP I cannot remember and the comment has now vanished - claimed the 4.5bn "black hole" was primarily due to including the 4th year of the cycle which is not formally part of the Budget. Hmmm: doesn't look to me as though the Government has given this its full consideration.
But anyway it doesn't matter, because the Budget can be balanced easily. Looking at the Electoral Commission website there are 50,062 voters on the roll. Only 37,484 votes had been counted by mid-day Tuesday as I write this. That leaves a "black hole' of 12,578 naughty non voters (or one heck of a lot of postal votes). There are I think 92 electorates so fine all the twerps who didn't vote (and thus deserve the sort of Government they - and unfortunately the rest of us - will get) $500 and there is $577million. The remaining $4bn could easily be covered by reducing the travel and entertainment budget for politicians.
On 30 March the SMH finally covered the issue that the lovely Pauline Hanson (that link contains an image unsuitable for those of a gentle disposition) was leading the contest for the final seat in the Legislative Council. See comments for some discussion of this. The Herald also included a few pithy (what other sort could they be?) comments from Paul Keating. If crafting political invective was an Olympic Sport he would be awarded the gold medal in perpetuity: while I don't agree with everything he says, this looks to be spot on.
On 1st April (I don't think the date is significant) the SMH ran a story containing the following:
The election stuff started early this morning as I read the headlines in the SMH. It is interesting how this article has changed: in the version I read about 7am someone - whether from Treasury or the ALP I cannot remember and the comment has now vanished - claimed the 4.5bn "black hole" was primarily due to including the 4th year of the cycle which is not formally part of the Budget. Hmmm: doesn't look to me as though the Government has given this its full consideration.
But anyway it doesn't matter, because the Budget can be balanced easily. Looking at the Electoral Commission website there are 50,062 voters on the roll. Only 37,484 votes had been counted by mid-day Tuesday as I write this. That leaves a "black hole' of 12,578 naughty non voters (or one heck of a lot of postal votes). There are I think 92 electorates so fine all the twerps who didn't vote (and thus deserve the sort of Government they - and unfortunately the rest of us - will get) $500 and there is $577million. The remaining $4bn could easily be covered by reducing the travel and entertainment budget for politicians.
On 30 March the SMH finally covered the issue that the lovely Pauline Hanson (that link contains an image unsuitable for those of a gentle disposition) was leading the contest for the final seat in the Legislative Council. See comments for some discussion of this. The Herald also included a few pithy (what other sort could they be?) comments from Paul Keating. If crafting political invective was an Olympic Sport he would be awarded the gold medal in perpetuity: while I don't agree with everything he says, this looks to be spot on.
On 1st April (I don't think the date is significant) the SMH ran a story containing the following:
Greens move into second in Balmain
April 1, 2011THE Greens are poised to win their first lower house seat after pulling ahead in Balmain. Jamie Parker now leads Labor's Verity Firth by 203 votes, with 89 per cent of the vote counted. The Coalition's James Falk leads on primary votes but the second-placed candidate is expected to win the seat with the distribution of preferences.
........
In the next day the Electoral Commission will begin the slow process of entering {Legislative Cuoncil}votes where people indicated preferences above the line as well as below-the-line votes. Analyst Antony Green said this would take about two weeks. The final distribution of preferences is expected on April 12.
I found a headline saying "Second" followed by the opening line saying "win" very confusing. Adding in the stuff about primary vote doesn't really help much either. Apart from carping about the naff quality of the journalism, my guess is that the word "recount" is appropriate here! The second extract shows again that these weird preferential voting systems are just too complicated where there is only a horse and buggy counting system. 3 weeks to declare the outcome of an election is to damn long. Bring in computerised voting!
We are now up to the 7th of April. Steve Whan is going to spend the next 4 years exploring the seams in the dustbin of history while the nice Mr Barilaro represents us. The Greens are engaging in their favourite sport (indeed the favourite sport of every 3rd party in Australia): destructive factional disputes over why they lost. Why don't they realise that the answer was given by the comedian Dave Allen many years ago "Stop it or you'll go blind." I have just a squizz to see how the Legislative Council is going:
We are now up to the 7th of April. Steve Whan is going to spend the next 4 years exploring the seams in the dustbin of history while the nice Mr Barilaro represents us. The Greens are engaging in their favourite sport (indeed the favourite sport of every 3rd party in Australia): destructive factional disputes over why they lost. Why don't they realise that the answer was given by the comedian Dave Allen many years ago "Stop it or you'll go blind." I have just a squizz to see how the Legislative Council is going:
- Slowly.
- It looks as though the Greens have got a third person up, blocking Ms Hanson.
- The main reason Ms Hanson's group did well was a block of about 8,600 personal votes for her.
- Some of the lower candidates in small groups appear to have got 0 votes. That means they didn't even vote for themselves!
- Overall, the number of personal votes was trivial compared to the number of above the line votes. Get rid of the below the line voting.
Comments
How would they get money from the unemployed and unemployable?
Obviously not the politically aware such as yourself.
Have you been following the stiff about Pauline Hansen's likely election?
Now, that's scary.
Cheers
Denis
Denis
No, I hadn't realised that was a possibility. It has just upgraded my horror movie metaphor from Halloween to "Nightmare on Elm (or any other) Street.
How come the SMH hasn't had this as a lead story? Are they assuming she would be irrelevant as Libs/Nats plus Shooters etc plus Fred Nile would be a workable majority? The thought of Hansen tweaking Fred Nile various beliefs to match her view of the world is beyond my feeble imagination.
Martin
I have managed to put thoughts of Pauline emerging from the vault (a nicer word than 'crypt") from my mind so can address your question about extracting money from the unemployed and unemployable.
I will try to avoid a trite response referring to Coalition MPS in the context of your second sentence! Lack of courage again!!
In the UK - under The Vicar (ie Blair) or subsequent PMs - they'd cover this by giving said segments of the community a 'bonus' to cover the cost. They'd then reduce the standard benefit by the same amount so there would be no budget impact (or possibly a benefit if some of the disadvantaged had actually voted).
Given that I suspect the upcoming NSW administration might, philosophically go back two regimes behind Blair, the solution would be to put all the disadvantaged in the RFS or SES. There'll be enough disasters to keep everyone busy!
Of course my key point is that there seems to be a total disjunction between the law of compulsory voting and actually enforcing that.
Martin
They bury the figures, and do not deal with the Lawbreakers, lest it attract attention to how many people simply ignore them as irrelevant.
Do you remember when they prosecuted a Melbourne radical academic for advocating that people turn up, get their names struck off the roll, and then depart without voting?
Can I suggest you read this article from the West Australian?
It is full of delicious ironies.
Cheers
Denis
It calls to mind a comment heard in the UK last year that something like 50% of speeding fines and property seizure penalties are not enforced. (Which probably explains why, despite the '000s of speed cameras, people passed us all the time when we were driving 5mph above the posted speed limit!)