Friday, 1 December 2017

Possibly wanted: good supply of Camphorwood ...

.. and a bunch of animals that'll go in 2x2.

Over the past few days there have been a number of hysterical weather forecasts in the media and other places with headlines screaming about huge amounts of rain and flooding.  Thus ark building has become a popular hobby.

On looking more closely the forecasts have focused on Victoria, rather than our area.  So what seems to be the the forecast for the Eastern part of the Southern Tablelands of NSW?  Note that the interpretation of maps etc is my totally inexpert view and mainly meant for amusement.  Don't plan anything (whether BBQ, boat building or beast bivouacing) on the basis of these words.

I'll begin with the current Extreme Weather Warning from the BoM.
That suggests that the really bad weather doesn't get over the Brindabellas.  Hmmm: perhaps put down the power tools and stop lining up the alpacas!

Next we have the BoM rainfall forecast for Friday 1 December.
 This area is on the cusp of the 1-5mm and 5-10mm ranges.  Probably fair to say about 5mm.  A welcome drop, but if that floats your boat, you have got a pretty small boat.  The camelids can be left unpaired.

On  to BoM forecast rainfall for Saturday.
 Again, our area is pretty close to the margin of two classes.  I'd say we are likely to get around 50mm.  Our records since 1983 show 14 days with that amount of rain or more (the highest was 10 December 1996 at 94mm).  So its going to be one of our damper days, but not unprecedented.  I wouldn't play in a watercourse that day!

Looking at a Norwegian site I am exploring they offer this chart for Hoskinstown.
On Friday the rain is more like drizzle for several hours with the only really significant falls around midnight.  For Saturday the falls are heavier but reasonably moderate totaling to about 48mm.  I'd take a raincoat if going out in the afternoon.  Here is the table underlying that chart.
With regards to wind speed this site quotes metres per second, peaking at 8m/s around 4pm. That is equivalent to ~28 kph which is a reasonable, but not dramatic, speed.

In terms of other Australian sites Weatherzone offers rainfall on Saturday of 10-20mm for Braidwood, Nerriga and Goulburn and 20-40mm for Yass.  Meteye suggests 25-40mm for Carwoola.

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