By way of example, here is a summary of my memory of the weather forecast issued prior to 31 July for the period from Sunday 31 July to about Friday 5 August.
- There were to be no frosts in this period (ie all minimum temperatures would be above 0);
- There would be showers on Sunday and then showers again from Wednesday through Friday.
- A mininmum of -3 for Monday and 0 for Tuesday.;
- Isolated showers on Friday.
- the overnight minimum forecast for each day; and
- an indicator of likely rainfall.
Of course, the BoM forecasts, while the most authoritative are only one of the forecasts issued. I also look at the forecasts issued by The Weather Channel (TWC). For the first 7 days of August there is not great correlation in the minimum temperatures (see comments on this graph):
In essence this shows the problem: no, or very little rain forecast then downpour then drop back to very little.
WRT to rainfall the agreement between the two forecasts is better in that they are identical except for 7 August where TWC indicate chance of showers.
Adding to the confusion is a disconnect between what is on the BoM website and what is announced on the ABC TV News. For the first period of observations (1 August) the website said -1.8 was the minimum while the presenter on TV said -3. I will stick with what is on the website, since if it is on the internet it must be true!